Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 5:00 PM ET · 22 nonstops

Tomorrow: UA 2112 at 05:12 is the safest bet, 7% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 11–24%.

Safest bet that day UA 2112 CLE 05:12 → ORD 05:42 · 7% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 4909 CLE 18:05 → ORD 18:59 · 24% chance 15+ min late · usually 59% on time

Against a calm day 14% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 14% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 2112 United	CLE 05:12	ORD 05:42	7%	3%	0.2%	no record
UA 490 United Flight history →	CLE 07:00	ORD 07:36	8%	2%	0.5%	86%
UA 609 United Flight history →	CLE 10:53	ORD 11:29	8%	3%	0.5%	88%
AA 1315 American Flight history →	CLE 06:04	ORD 06:30	9%	4%	0.3%	86%
UA 656 United Flight history →	CLE 08:57	ORD 09:31	9%	3%	0.5%	90%
UA 1355 United Flight history →	CLE 09:00	ORD 09:34	10%	3%	0.5%	81%
UA 472 United	CLE 10:47	ORD 11:14	10%	3%	0.5%	no record
UA 5265 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	CLE 06:00	ORD 06:40	10%	4%	0.3%	86%
AA 6363 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	CLE 09:44	ORD 10:30	11%	5%	0.6%	76%
UA 3575 United flown by Republic Flight history →	CLE 16:14	ORD 16:59	11%	3%	0.6%	86%
MQ 3380 Envoy	CLE 08:14	ORD 08:49	12%	3%	0.7%	no record
OO 6450 SkyWest	CLE 10:25	ORD 10:55	14%	5%	0.6%	no record
MQ 3429 Envoy	CLE 12:58	ORD 13:39	14%	3%	0.7%	no record
UA 2443 United Flight history →	CLE 14:05	ORD 14:41	15%	3%	0.5%	68%
AA 4949 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	CLE 14:32	ORD 15:19	16%	5%	0.6%	76%
AA 3466 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	CLE 20:47	ORD 21:31	16%	3%	0.8%	77%
OO 4689 SkyWest	CLE 12:34	ORD 13:12	18%	5%	0.6%	no record
UA 2315 United Flight history →	CLE 16:20	ORD 16:54	19%	4%	0.5%	64%
AA 3454 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	CLE 17:45	ORD 18:32	22%	4%	0.7%	60%
UA 1673 United Flight history →	CLE 18:05	ORD 18:44	23%	5%	0.5%	53%
UA 1084 United Flight history →	CLE 19:40	ORD 20:20	23%	5%	0.5%	60%
AA 4909 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	CLE 18:05	ORD 18:59	24%	6%	0.7%	59%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON