Today: AA 451 at 08:17 is the safest bet, 15% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 26–29%.

Safest bet today AA 451 CLE 08:17 → PHX 09:10 · 15% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 1225 CLE 18:40 → PHX 19:59 · 29% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 25% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 22% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 1 flight that already left today is not shown.


AA 451 American	CLE 08:17	PHX 09:10	15%	4%	0.6%	no record
WN 4967 Southwest Flight history →	CLE 16:00	PHX 17:10	26%	5%	0.2%	55%
F9 2697 Frontier Flight history →	CLE 21:17	PHX 22:31	28%	8%	0.7%	82%worse than usual
WN 1225 Southwest	CLE 18:40	PHX 19:59	29%	6%	0.2%	no record

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Southwest Details →	CLE 20:25 → STL 21:00WN 747	50m St Louis	STL 21:50 → PHX 23:05WN 4114	5h 40m	76%	59%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON