Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 9:37 am at Cleveland); 2 already left

Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 7:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Today: one nonstop, F9 1544 at 16:26, with a 21% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops today


F9 1544 Frontier Flight history →	CLE 16:26	RSW 19:14	21%	10%	1.8%	76%

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Fort Myers on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Southwest Details →	CLE 12:05 → MDW 12:20WN 1161	2h 30m Chicago	MDW 14:50 → RSW 18:40WN 4764	6h 35m	100%	82%
Southwest Details →	CLE 10:50 → BWI 12:10WN 937	1h 20m Baltimore	BWI 13:30 → RSW 16:21WN 203	5h 31m	99%	82%
Delta Details →	CLE 10:48 → MSP 11:49DL 2847	59m Minneapolis	MSP 12:48 → RSW 17:18DL 2219	6h 30m	90%	80%
Delta Details →	CLE 10:26 → DTW 11:27DL 5192 · flown by Endeavor	3h 01m Detroit	DTW 14:28 → RSW 17:22DL 1225	6h 56m	94%	79%
American Details →	CLE 09:44 → ORD 10:30AA 6363 · flown by SkyWest	1h 52m Chicago	ORD 12:22 → RSW 16:27AA 1742	6h 43m	95%	78%
United Details →	CLE 14:05 → ORD 14:41UA 2443	1h 45m Chicago	ORD 16:26 → RSW 20:34UA 2618	6h 29m	95%	77%
American Details →	CLE 14:32 → ORD 15:19AA 4949 · flown by SkyWest	3h 28m Chicago	ORD 18:47 → RSW 22:43AA 1774	8h 11m	98%	73%
Southwest Details →	CLE 16:45 → MDW 17:05WN 1162	1h 50m Chicago	MDW 18:55 → RSW 22:45WN 2881	6h 00m	96%	73%
Tight connection: often missed
United Details →	CLE 11:50 → EWR 13:29UA 3424 · flown by Republic	48m Newark	EWR 14:17 → RSW 17:24UA 2044	5h 34m	73%	49%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON