Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 3 nonstops

Tomorrow: AS 274 at 07:03 is the safest bet, 17% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 24–28%.

Safest bet that day AS 274 CLE 07:03 → SEA 09:11 · 17% chance 15+ min late · usually 73% on time Riskiest AS 216 CLE 17:32 → SEA 19:41 · 28% chance 15+ min late · usually 59% on time

Against a calm day 23% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 20% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AS 274 Alaska Flight history →	CLE 07:03	SEA 09:11	17%	4%	0.7%	73%
AS 262 Alaska	CLE 08:15	SEA 10:17	24%	4%	0.8%	no record
AS 216 Alaska Flight history →	CLE 17:32	SEA 19:41	28%	5%	0.7%	59%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Delta Details →	CLE 19:26 → MSP 20:37DL 1449	1h 31m Minneapolis	MSP 22:08 → SEA 23:58DL 505	7h 32m	94%	83%
Southwest Details →	CLE 08:55 → MDW 09:10WN 4171	1h 30m Chicago	MDW 10:40 → SEA 13:10WN 1340	7h 15m	97%	82%
Southwest Details →	CLE 05:30 → DEN 06:40WN 3930	1h 05m Denver	DEN 07:45 → SEA 09:45WN 1713	7h 15m	98%	81%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON