Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 9:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Tomorrow looks like a normal day here: all 4 nonstops are 9–13% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day UA 2153 CLE 07:00 → SFO 09:12 · 9% chance 15+ min late · usually 95% on time Riskiest UA 234 CLE 17:40 → SFO 19:55 · 13% chance 15+ min late · usually 58% on time

Against a calm day 11% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 10% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 2153 United Flight history →	CLE 07:00	SFO 09:12	9%	3%	0.2%	95%
UA 1250 United	CLE 08:57	SFO 11:27	9%	4%	0.2%	no record
UA 2817 United	CLE 19:16	SFO 21:49	12%	4%	0.6%	no record
UA 234 United Flight history →	CLE 17:40	SFO 19:55	13%	4%	0.5%	58%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Southwest Details →	CLE 06:25 → STL 07:00WN 1165	1h 30m St Louis	STL 08:30 → SFO 10:49WN 4931	7h 24m	98%	87%
Southwest Details →	CLE 05:30 → DEN 06:40WN 3930	1h 55m Denver	DEN 08:35 → SFO 10:12WN 4303	7h 42m	100%	83%
Delta Details →	CLE 07:28 → SLC 09:26DL 2207	1h 34m Salt Lake City	SLC 11:00 → SFO 12:03DL 902	7h 35m	97%	81%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON