Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Tomorrow looks like a normal day here: all 4 nonstops are 2–11% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day WN 1218 CLE 06:58 → STL 07:47 · 2% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 747 CLE 20:25 → STL 21:00 · 11% chance 15+ min late · usually 69% on time

Against a calm day 7% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 8% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 1218 Southwest	CLE 06:58	STL 07:47	2%	1%	0.1%	no record
WN 1165 Southwest Flight history →	CLE 06:25	STL 07:00	3%	1%	0.1%	90%
WN 4976 Southwest	CLE 16:50	STL 17:39	11%	4%	0.4%	no record
WN 747 Southwest Flight history →	CLE 20:25	STL 21:00	11%	3%	0.5%	69%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON