Today looks like a normal day here: all 3 nonstops are 21–31% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet today F9 2919 CLE 14:04 → TPA 16:38 · 21% chance 15+ min late · usually 76% on time Riskiest F9 1491 CLE 18:20 → TPA 20:57 · 31% chance 15+ min late · usually 64% on time

Against a calm day 26% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 31% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 2 flights that already left today are not shown.


F9 2919 Frontier Flight history →	CLE 14:04	TPA 16:38	21%	12%	2.2%	76%
F9 1831 Frontier Flight history →	CLE 18:43	TPA 21:35	25%	14%	1.5%	79%
F9 1491 Frontier Flight history →	CLE 18:20	TPA 20:57	31%	12%	1.5%	64%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON