Today: AA 710 at 08:53 is the safest bet, 12% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 24–33%.

Safest bet today AA 710 CLT 08:53 → ALB 10:59 · 12% chance 15+ min late · usually 87% on time Riskiest AA 1858 CLT 20:40 → ALB 22:39 · 33% chance 15+ min late · usually 70% on time

Against a calm day 23% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 20% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 710 American Flight history →	CLT 08:53	ALB 10:59	12%	4%	0.2%	87%
AA 1352 American Flight history →	CLT 08:55	ALB 10:52	13%	4%	0.2%	86%
AA 2898 American	CLT 16:24	ALB 18:33	24%	7%	0.8%	no record
AA 440 American	CLT 13:19	ALB 15:25	25%	9%	0.2%	no record
AA 3294 American Flight history →	CLT 16:40	ALB 18:45	25%	7%	0.8%	73%
AA 589 American	CLT 20:10	ALB 22:15	30%	8%	0.8%	no record
AA 1858 American Flight history →	CLT 20:40	ALB 22:39	33%	8%	0.8%	70%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON