Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 3:00 PM ET · 18 nonstops

Tomorrow: DL 3186 at 05:30 is the safest bet, 7% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 14–37%.

Safest bet that day DL 3186 CLT 05:30 → ATL 06:41 · 7% chance 15+ min late · usually 96% on time Riskiest AA 5528 CLT 20:30 → ATL 21:52 · 37% chance 15+ min late · usually 49% on time

Against a calm day 20% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 12% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 3186 Delta Flight history →	CLT 05:30	ATL 06:41	7%	3%	1.0%	96%
DL 3190 Delta Flight history →	CLT 12:19	ATL 13:32	12%	4%	0.7%	87%
DL 3174 Delta Flight history →	CLT 09:43	ATL 11:00	12%	4%	0.8%	81%
DL 1709 Delta	CLT 09:38	ATL 10:53	13%	4%	0.8%	no record
DL 2157 Delta Flight history →	CLT 14:22	ATL 15:37	13%	3%	0.8%	80%
DL 2275 Delta Flight history →	CLT 06:59	ATL 08:13	13%	4%	1.0%	86%
DL 1656 Delta	CLT 06:53	ATL 08:08	13%	4%	1.0%	no record
DL 3032 Delta Flight history →	CLT 16:49	ATL 18:10	14%	3%	0.8%	62%
DL 3156 Delta Flight history →	CLT 08:01	ATL 09:15	15%	4%	1.0%	92%
DL 2132 Delta Flight history →	CLT 19:50	ATL 21:13	16%	4%	0.9%	57%
AA 5039 American flown by PSA Flight history →	CLT 09:10	ATL 10:41	22%	4%	0.8%	88%
AA 1051 American	CLT 09:03	ATL 10:18	25%	6%	1.0%	no record
AA 5175 American flown by PSA Flight history →	CLT 13:47	ATL 15:07	26%	6%	0.8%	73%
AA 5498 American flown by PSA Flight history →	CLT 22:36	ATL 23:58	27%	8%	1.2%	70%
AA 5041 American flown by PSA Flight history →	CLT 13:10	ATL 14:35	30%	6%	0.8%	66%
AA 5040 American flown by PSA Flight history →	CLT 16:46	ATL 18:14	30%	6%	0.9%	46%
AA 5063 American flown by PSA Flight history →	CLT 07:14	ATL 08:34	34%	4%	1.2%	62%
AA 5528 American flown by PSA Flight history →	CLT 20:30	ATL 21:52	37%	8%	0.9%	49%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON