Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 6:12 am at Charlotte)

Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 4:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Today: one nonstop, AA 5516 at 14:19, with a 26% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops today


AA 5516 American flown by PSA Flight history →	CLT 14:19	ATW 15:37	26%	7%	0.6%	81%

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Appleton on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Appleton is 1 h behind Charlotte). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


American Details →	CLT 13:11 → ORD 14:18AA 2530	3h 11m Chicago	ORD 17:29 → ATW 18:44AA 3410 · flown by Envoy	6h 33m	97%	85%
American Details →	CLT 18:26 → ORD 19:51AA 2488	3h 11m Chicago	ORD 23:02 → ATW 00:15 +1AA 3774 · flown by Envoy	6h 49m	95%	85%
American Details →	CLT 15:04 → DFW 16:58AA 1709	3h 09m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 20:07 → ATW 22:41AA 4188 · flown by Envoy	8h 37m	98%	82%
Delta Details →	CLT 06:20 → MSP 07:59DL 2491	1h 33m Minneapolis	MSP 09:32 → ATW 10:47DL 4951 · flown by Endeavor	5h 27m	96%	82%
United Details →	CLT 18:40 → ORD 20:18UA 5751 · flown by SkyWest	1h 42m Chicago	ORD 22:00 → ATW 23:23UA 4495 · flown by GoJet	5h 43m	100%	80%
United Details →	CLT 06:49 → ORD 08:00UA 1304	2h 25m Chicago	ORD 10:25 → ATW 11:43UA 4460 · flown by GoJet	5h 54m	100%	78%
Delta Details →	CLT 16:49 → ATL 18:10DL 3032	3h 06m Atlanta	ATL 21:16 → ATW 22:31DL 2945	6h 42m	96%	78%
United Details →	CLT 10:35 → ORD 11:59UA 4680 · flown by SkyWest	1h 56m Chicago	ORD 13:55 → ATW 15:09UA 4479 · flown by GoJet	5h 34m	96%	76%
Tight connection: often missed
United Details →	CLT 10:35 → ORD 11:59UA 4680 · flown by SkyWest	46m Chicago	ORD 12:45 → ATW 14:05UA 4475 · flown by GoJet	4h 30m	61%	44%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON