Today: AA 2741 at 11:21 is the safest bet, 20% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 31–36%.

Safest bet today AA 2741 CLT 11:21 → BDL 13:28 · 20% chance 15+ min late · usually 75% on time Riskiest AA 2169 CLT 19:48 → BDL 21:48 · 36% chance 15+ min late · usually 66% on time

Against a calm day 30% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 29% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 2 flights that already left today are not shown.


AA 2741 American Flight history →	CLT 11:21	BDL 13:28	20%	4%	0.2%	75%
AA 1260 American	CLT 14:38	BDL 16:44	26%	4%	0.2%	no record
AA 1448 American Flight history →	CLT 11:51	BDL 13:50	31%	4%	0.2%	63%
AA 3099 American	CLT 16:24	BDL 18:22	31%	4%	0.2%	no record
AA 2763 American Flight history →	CLT 21:01	BDL 23:00	33%	6%	0.8%	53%
AA 3280 American Flight history →	CLT 19:22	BDL 21:20	35%	6%	0.2%	78%worse than usual
AA 2169 American Flight history →	CLT 19:48	BDL 21:48	36%	7%	0.2%	66%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON