tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow: United via O'Hare, leaving 06:49, is the safest bet: 93% chance of reaching Bozeman on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 67% of the time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Bozeman on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Bozeman is 2 h behind Charlotte). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → CLT 06:49 → ORD 07:58UA 1304 1h 12m Chicago ORD 09:10 → BZN 11:44UA 224 6h 55m 100% 93%
DeltaDetails → CLT 06:20 → MSP 07:59DL 2491 2h 57m Minneapolis MSP 10:56 → BZN 12:27DL 2946 8h 07m 98% 91%
UnitedDetails → CLT 08:05 → ORD 09:22UA 2771 3h 23m Chicago ORD 12:45 → BZN 15:13UA 623 9h 08m 99% 88%
DeltaDetails → CLT 06:59 → ATL 08:13DL 2275 2h 56m Atlanta ATL 11:09 → BZN 13:11DL 406 8h 12m 100% 86%
UnitedDetails → CLT 08:40 → DEN 10:27UA 1963 3h 17m Denver DEN 13:44 → BZN 15:33UA 513 8h 53m 99% 86%
DeltaDetails → CLT 18:10 → SLC 20:29DL 2070 2h 36m Salt Lake City SLC 23:05 → BZN 00:23 +1DL 2046 8h 13m 99% 86%
SouthwestDetails → CLT 07:35 → MDW 08:40WN 3048 2h 20m Chicago MDW 11:00 → BZN 13:10WN 1139 7h 35m 97% 85%
AmericanDetails → CLT 05:45 → DFW 07:35AA 3180 3h 10m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 10:45 → BZN 13:10AA 952 9h 25m 100% 83%
Tight connection: often missed
AmericanDetails → CLT 07:46 → ORD 09:02AA 2843 52m Chicago ORD 09:54 → BZN 12:07AA 1501 6h 21m 72% 63%
UnitedDetails → CLT 10:35 → ORD 11:59UA 4680 · flown by SkyWest 46m Chicago ORD 12:45 → BZN 15:13UA 623 6h 38m 67% 59%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON