Today: AA 1677 at 09:37 is the safest bet, 24% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 29–37%.

Safest bet today AA 1677 CLT 09:37 → CLE 11:12 · 24% chance 15+ min late · usually 73% on time Riskiest AA 3146 CLT 20:44 → CLE 22:21 · 37% chance 15+ min late · usually 63% on time

Against a calm day 30% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 31% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 1677 American Flight history →	CLT 09:37	CLE 11:12	24%	4%	0.2%	73%
OH 5635 PSA	CLT 09:24	CLE 11:00	25%	5%	0.6%	no record
AA 1681 American Flight history →	CLT 13:27	CLE 15:01	28%	6%	0.2%	73%
AA 1562 American Flight history →	CLT 14:40	CLE 16:18	28%	6%	0.2%	80%
AA 1679 American Flight history →	CLT 16:59	CLE 18:39	29%	7%	0.3%	60%
AA 568 American	CLT 11:32	CLE 13:09	30%	4%	0.2%	no record
AA 2260 American Flight history →	CLT 22:50	CLE 00:29	31%	8%	1.3%	69%
AA 1965 American	CLT 23:07	CLE 00:50	31%	6%	1.8%	no record
AA 1244 American	CLT 16:41	CLE 18:14	31%	6%	0.3%	no record
AA 498 American	CLT 20:23	CLE 21:56	36%	8%	0.3%	no record
AA 3146 American Flight history →	CLT 20:44	CLE 22:21	37%	9%	1.3%	63%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON