Today: AA 5144 at 07:10 is the safest bet, 8% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 22–36%.

Safest bet today AA 5144 CLT 07:10 → CMH 08:44 · 8% chance 15+ min late · usually 88% on time Riskiest AA 3330 CLT 18:49 → CMH 20:11 · 36% chance 15+ min late · usually 82% on time

Against a calm day 20% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 21% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 5144 American flown by PSA Flight history →	CLT 07:10	CMH 08:44	8%	3%	0.6%	88%
AA 3217 American	CLT 07:58	CMH 09:20	11%	3%	0.5%	no record
AA 2395 American Flight history →	CLT 08:59	CMH 10:25	12%	4%	0.4%	85%
OH 5103 PSA	CLT 09:39	CMH 11:07	13%	4%	0.4%	no record
AA 5134 American flown by PSA Flight history →	CLT 13:37	CMH 15:14	15%	4%	0.3%	73%
AA 5117 American flown by PSA Flight history →	CLT 15:19	CMH 16:56	17%	6%	0.3%	61%
OH 5098 PSA	CLT 15:43	CMH 17:11	17%	5%	0.3%	no record
OH 5655 PSA	CLT 21:29	CMH 22:57	22%	5%	0.7%	no record
AA 2960 American	CLT 13:16	CMH 14:42	24%	5%	0.3%	no record
AA 3226 American Flight history →	CLT 22:29	CMH 23:56	28%	8%	0.8%	68%
AA 1540 American Flight history →	CLT 19:23	CMH 20:56	32%	8%	0.8%	63%
AA 3330 American Flight history →	CLT 18:49	CMH 20:11	36%	8%	0.8%	82%worse than usual

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON