Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 7:45 am at Charlotte)

Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 6:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Today looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 15–16% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops today


MQ 3744 Envoy	CLT 21:21	COU 22:32	15%	4%	0.8%	no record
AA 3990 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	CLT 20:40	COU 21:52	16%	4%	0.8%	83%

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Columbia on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Columbia is 1 h behind Charlotte). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


American Details →	CLT 14:35 → ORD 15:56AA 2080	3h 33m Chicago	ORD 19:29 → COU 21:01AA 3745 · flown by Envoy	7h 26m	100%	87%
American Details →	CLT 11:30 → DFW 13:16AA 1285	3h 57m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 17:13 → COU 18:56AA 3890 · flown by Envoy	8h 26m	100%	84%
American Details →	CLT 15:04 → DFW 16:58AA 1709	3h 35m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 20:33 → COU 22:20AA 4282 · flown by Envoy	8h 16m	99%	81%
American Details →	CLT 13:10 → ORD 14:17AA 2530	2h 12m Chicago	ORD 16:29 → COU 18:01AA 3479 · flown by Envoy	5h 51m	93%	79%
American Details →	CLT 15:25 → ORD 16:46AA 2907	2h 32m Chicago	ORD 19:18 → COU 20:40AA 3696 · flown by Envoy	6h 15m	94%	79%
United Details →	CLT 18:40 → ORD 20:18UA 5751 · flown by SkyWest	1h 42m Chicago	ORD 22:00 → COU 23:33UA 5336 · flown by SkyWest	5h 53m	100%	76%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON