Today: OH 5151 at 12:12 is the safest bet, 18% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 29–38%.

Safest bet today OH 5151 CLT 12:12 → CVG 13:11 · 18% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 633 CLT 20:22 → CVG 21:45 · 38% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 29% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 29% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 4 flights that already left today are not shown.


OH 5151 PSA	CLT 12:12	CVG 13:11	18%	5%	0.5%	no record
OH 5069 PSA	CLT 13:39	CVG 15:05	18%	5%	0.6%	no record
AA 5293 American flown by PSA Flight history →	CLT 16:40	CVG 18:06	29%	7%	0.5%	75%
OH 5017 PSA	CLT 22:34	CVG 23:59	31%	5%	0.7%	no record
AA 1706 American Flight history →	CLT 16:15	CVG 17:45	33%	7%	0.3%	71%
AA 2989 American Flight history →	CLT 20:29	CVG 21:56	37%	10%	0.4%	49%
AA 633 American	CLT 20:22	CVG 21:45	38%	9%	0.5%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON