Today looks like a normal day here: all 5 nonstops are 21–30% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet today OH 5379 CLT 09:59 → DAY 11:31 · 21% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 5321 CLT 15:44 → DAY 17:17 · 30% chance 15+ min late · usually 79% on time

Against a calm day 26% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 25% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


OH 5379 PSA	CLT 09:59	DAY 11:31	21%	6%	0.5%	no record
AA 5198 American flown by PSA Flight history →	CLT 15:30	DAY 17:12	25%	11%	0.8%	50%
AA 5174 American flown by PSA Flight history →	CLT 20:29	DAY 22:09	28%	13%	0.8%	63%
AA 5435 American flown by PSA Flight history →	CLT 18:55	DAY 20:37	28%	13%	0.8%	70%
AA 5321 American flown by PSA Flight history →	CLT 15:44	DAY 17:17	30%	10%	0.8%	79%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON