Today looks rough: weather pushes the average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 50%, against 35% on a calm day. Safest: AA 2386 at 18:22, 46%.

Safest bet today AA 2386 CLT 18:22 → DCA 20:00 · 46% chance 15+ min late · usually 58% on time Riskiest AA 527 CLT 18:23 → DCA 19:49 · 54% chance 15+ min late · usually 57% on time

Weather 50% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 35% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 8 flights that already left today are not shown.


AA 2386 American Flight history →	CLT 18:22	DCA 20:00	46%	14%	0.4%	58%
AA 1269 American Flight history →	CLT 22:27	DCA 23:53	48%	11%	0.5%	64%worse than usual
AA 2432 American	CLT 20:49	DCA 22:15	52%	11%	0.3%	no record
AA 527 American Flight history →	CLT 18:23	DCA 19:49	54%	13%	0.3%	57%worse than usual

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON