Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 5:00 PM ET · 12 nonstops

Tomorrow: UA 1963 at 08:40 is the safest bet, 11% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 15–30%.

Safest bet that day UA 1963 CLT 08:40 → DEN 10:27 · 11% chance 15+ min late · usually 92% on time Riskiest F9 1361 CLT 22:04 → DEN 23:48 · 30% chance 15+ min late · usually 74% on time

Against a calm day 20% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 20% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 1963 United Flight history →	CLT 08:40	DEN 10:27	11%	5%	0.6%	92%
AA 1662 American Flight history →	CLT 11:54	DEN 13:40	14%	5%	0.9%	87%
UA 2609 United Flight history →	CLT 16:08	DEN 17:55	15%	5%	0.6%	74%
UA 792 United	CLT 16:21	DEN 18:14	16%	6%	0.6%	no record
AA 2174 American	CLT 13:32	DEN 15:03	18%	4%	0.9%	no record
AA 1754 American Flight history →	CLT 07:39	DEN 09:10	18%	3%	1.0%	93%worse than usual
AA 1758 American Flight history →	CLT 11:30	DEN 12:56	19%	5%	0.9%	81%
AA 1410 American	CLT 07:40	DEN 09:27	19%	3%	0.9%	no record
AA 1735 American Flight history →	CLT 13:32	DEN 15:03	19%	5%	0.9%	51%
AA 3156 American Flight history →	CLT 21:39	DEN 23:09	27%	6%	1.0%	63%
AA 1736 American Flight history →	CLT 18:32	DEN 20:17	28%	7%	1.0%	49%
F9 1361 Frontier Flight history →	CLT 22:04	DEN 23:48	30%	8%	0.8%	74%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Southwest Details →	CLT 06:35 → BNA 07:00WN 1167	55m Nashville	BNA 07:55 → DEN 09:40WN 499	5h 05m	92%	82%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON