tailodds FORECAST
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Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 11:00 AM ET · 15 nonstops

Tomorrow: AA 3180 at 05:45 is the safest bet, 10% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 25–30%.

Safest bet that day AA 3180 CLT 05:45 → DFW 07:35 · 10% chance 15+ min late · usually 91% on time Riskiest AA 1698 CLT 19:52 → DFW 21:44 · 30% chance 15+ min late · usually 50% on time
Against a calm day 22% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 22% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.
AA 3180 American Flight history → CLT 05:45 DFW 07:35 10% 2% 1.3% 91%
AA 2795 American CLT 10:10 DFW 12:12 16% 4% 1.2% no record
AA 1276 American Flight history → CLT 08:56 DFW 10:48 18% 4% 1.0% 79%
AA 575 American CLT 09:22 DFW 11:21 18% 4% 1.2% no record
AA 1005 American Flight history → CLT 07:42 DFW 09:45 18% 3% 1.2% 85%
AA 1285 American Flight history → CLT 11:30 DFW 13:16 21% 4% 1.0% 81%
AA 2407 American Flight history → CLT 13:05 DFW 14:57 22% 5% 1.0% 74%
AA 2747 American Flight history → CLT 11:15 DFW 13:16 22% 5% 1.0% 75%
AA 2556 American CLT 08:24 DFW 10:09 22% 4% 1.0% no record
AA 1709 American Flight history → CLT 15:04 DFW 16:58 23% 5% 1.2% 80%
F9 3165 Frontier Flight history → CLT 12:01 DFW 13:55 25% 6% 1.0% 73%
AA 1271 American Flight history → CLT 22:36 DFW 00:29 25% 6% 1.0% 70%
AA 2815 American Flight history → CLT 16:38 DFW 18:36 25% 6% 1.2% 56%
AA 2409 American Flight history → CLT 18:00 DFW 20:00 30% 8% 0.9% 58%
AA 1698 American Flight history → CLT 19:52 DFW 21:44 30% 7% 1.0% 50%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON