Today looks rough: weather pushes the average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 38%, against 23% on a calm day. Safest: AA 5633 at 23:09, 27%.

Safest bet today AA 5633 CLT 23:09 → ECP 23:54 · 27% chance 15+ min late · usually 57% on time Riskiest AA 5649 CLT 17:37 → ECP 18:22 · 43% chance 15+ min late · usually 38% on time

Weather 38% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 23% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 2 flights that already left today are not shown.


AA 5633 American flown by PSA Flight history →	CLT 23:09	ECP 23:54	27%	6%	3.6%	57%
AA 3552 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	CLT 15:06	ECP 15:47	39%	9%	1.8%	58%
OH 5388 PSA	CLT 18:01	ECP 18:46	43%	11%	2.7%	no record
AA 5649 American flown by PSA Flight history →	CLT 17:37	ECP 18:22	43%	14%	3.0%	38%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON