Today: MQ 3368 at 16:44 is the safest bet, 23% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 24–35%.

Safest bet today MQ 3368 CLT 16:44 → EYW 19:08 · 23% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 2533 CLT 16:32 → EYW 18:48 · 35% chance 15+ min late · usually 58% on time

Against a calm day 28% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 19% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


MQ 3368 Envoy	CLT 16:44	EYW 19:08	23%	6%	0.6%	no record
MQ 3413 Envoy	CLT 14:13	EYW 16:34	24%	5%	0.6%	no record
AA 3519 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	CLT 13:50	EYW 16:11	25%	5%	0.6%	87%worse than usual
AA 1816 American Flight history →	CLT 09:52	EYW 12:23	26%	6%	0.4%	83%
AA 1826 American Flight history →	CLT 10:00	EYW 12:14	32%	7%	0.4%	77%
AA 2533 American Flight history →	CLT 16:32	EYW 18:48	35%	10%	0.4%	58%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON