Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 5:00 PM ET · 13 nonstops

Tomorrow: AA 1865 at 07:15 is the safest bet, 14% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 31–41%.

Safest bet that day AA 1865 CLT 07:15 → FLL 09:16 · 14% chance 15+ min late · usually 88% on time Riskiest F9 1983 CLT 18:41 → FLL 20:50 · 41% chance 15+ min late · usually 62% on time

Against a calm day 25% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 24% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 1865 American Flight history →	CLT 07:15	FLL 09:16	14%	3%	1.0%	88%
B6 848 JetBlue Flight history →	CLT 06:50	FLL 08:56	15%	5%	0.7%	85%
AA 1451 American	CLT 07:17	FLL 09:17	17%	4%	0.9%	no record
AA 1484 American	CLT 11:09	FLL 13:19	17%	5%	0.9%	no record
AA 2585 American	CLT 08:51	FLL 10:52	19%	4%	0.8%	no record
B6 2148 JetBlue Flight history →	CLT 09:00	FLL 11:06	21%	6%	0.7%	90%worse than usual
AA 1875 American Flight history →	CLT 13:18	FLL 15:20	24%	6%	0.8%	79%
AA 2354 American	CLT 14:38	FLL 16:48	26%	5%	0.9%	no record
B6 1148 JetBlue Flight history →	CLT 15:10	FLL 17:16	30%	12%	0.7%	48%
AA 1861 American Flight history →	CLT 16:45	FLL 18:51	31%	6%	0.9%	64%
AA 1465 American	CLT 16:47	FLL 18:48	31%	6%	0.9%	no record
AA 321 American Flight history →	CLT 20:42	FLL 22:42	33%	6%	0.9%	68%
F9 1983 Frontier Flight history →	CLT 18:41	FLL 20:50	41%	14%	0.9%	62%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON