Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 4:02 pm at Charlotte); 4 already left

Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 2:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Today looks rough: weather pushes the average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 56%, against 35% on a calm day. Safest: AA 676 at 22:37, 55%.

Nonstops today


AA 676 American Flight history →	CLT 22:37	GRR 00:32	55%	11%	0.2%	74%worse than usual
AA 3113 American Flight history →	CLT 22:28	GRR 00:20	56%	14%	0.2%	65%worse than usual

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Grand Rapids on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


United Details →	CLT 18:40 → ORD 20:18UA 5751 · flown by SkyWest	1h 22m Chicago	ORD 21:40 → GRR 23:57UA 5303 · flown by SkyWest	5h 17m	89%	69%
Delta Details →	CLT 16:49 → ATL 18:10DL 3032	3h 49m Atlanta	ATL 21:59 → GRR 23:54DL 2865	7h 05m	96%	64%
Southwest Details →	CLT 19:05 → MDW 20:10WN 1513	1h 35m Chicago	MDW 21:45 → GRR 23:48WN 4572	4h 43m	80%	59%
Delta Details →	CLT 17:05 → LGA 19:12DL 5828 · flown by Republic	1h 48m New York	LGA 21:00 → GRR 23:24DL 5659 · flown by Republic	6h 19m	83%	58%
American Details →	CLT 18:26 → ORD 19:51AA 2488	2h 41m Chicago	ORD 22:32 → GRR 00:36 +1AA 1096	6h 10m	89%	58%
American Details →	CLT 16:09 → PHL 17:18AA 864	2h 16m Philadelphia	PHL 19:34 → GRR 21:40AA 5493 · flown by PSA	5h 31m	85%	56%
Delta Details →	CLT 17:02 → DTW 18:52DL 1430	1h 08m Detroit	DTW 20:00 → GRR 21:00DL 4081 · flown by SkyWest	3h 58m	80%	55%
Tight connection: often missed
Delta Details →	CLT 19:50 → ATL 21:13DL 2132	46m Atlanta	ATL 21:59 → GRR 23:54DL 2865	4h 04m	67%	45%
Southwest Details →	CLT 19:50 → BWI 21:25WN 478	1h 10m Baltimore	BWI 22:35 → GRR 00:20 +1WN 4373	4h 30m	74%	45%
American Details →	CLT 16:47 → DCA 18:22AA 3263	1h 44m Washington	DCA 20:06 → GRR 22:03AA 5376 · flown by PSA	5h 16m	71%	43%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON