Today: AA 4054 at 21:25 is the safest bet, 9% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 16–42%.

Safest bet today AA 4054 CLT 21:25 → GSO 22:24 · 9% chance 15+ min late · usually 83% on time Riskiest AA 2126 CLT 18:07 → GSO 19:10 · 42% chance 15+ min late · usually 51% on time

Against a calm day 26% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 22% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 5 flights that already left today are not shown.


AA 4054 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	CLT 21:25	GSO 22:24	9%	3%	0.4%	83%
MQ 3699 Envoy	CLT 17:56	GSO 18:47	16%	4%	0.4%	no record
AA 4147 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	CLT 20:29	GSO 21:20	17%	3%	0.4%	86%
PT 5856 Piedmont	CLT 22:44	GSO 23:37	23%	6%	0.9%	no record
OH 5058 PSA	CLT 15:09	GSO 15:32	28%	5%	0.6%	no record
OH 5217 PSA	CLT 17:05	GSO 18:00	33%	8%	0.7%	no record
AA 2802 American Flight history →	CLT 23:01	GSO 23:57	38%	8%	0.4%	70%
AA 2126 American Flight history →	CLT 18:07	GSO 19:10	42%	9%	0.3%	51%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON