Today looks like a normal day here: all 4 nonstops are 21–26% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet today AA 6051 CLT 22:54 → HSV 23:20 · 21% chance 15+ min late · usually 100% on time Riskiest AA 5443 CLT 20:44 → HSV 21:14 · 26% chance 15+ min late · usually 81% on time

Against a calm day 24% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 19% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 3 flights that already left today are not shown.


AA 6051 American flown by Piedmont Flight history →	CLT 22:54	HSV 23:20	21%	4%	0.6%	100%worse than usual
AA 6007 American flown by Piedmont Flight history →	CLT 18:01	HSV 18:27	23%	4%	0.5%	87%
AA 5133 American flown by PSA Flight history →	CLT 22:50	HSV 23:23	24%	9%	0.7%	50%
AA 5443 American flown by PSA Flight history →	CLT 20:44	HSV 21:14	26%	11%	0.7%	81%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON