Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 10:00 PM ET · 14 nonstops

Tomorrow: OH 5490 at 07:10 is the safest bet, 13% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 20–31%.

Safest bet that day OH 5490 CLT 07:10 → IAD 08:48 · 13% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 3238 CLT 19:48 → IAD 21:14 · 31% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 21% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 18% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


OH 5490 PSA	CLT 07:10	IAD 08:48	13%	4%	1.1%	no record
AA 5219 American flown by PSA Flight history →	CLT 07:20	IAD 08:49	14%	4%	1.1%	89%
OH 5154 PSA	CLT 11:18	IAD 12:58	16%	4%	1.2%	no record
AA 5220 American flown by PSA Flight history →	CLT 11:05	IAD 12:38	16%	4%	1.2%	84%
OH 5222 PSA	CLT 17:15	IAD 18:53	20%	6%	0.7%	no record
OH 5077 PSA	CLT 22:32	IAD 00:10	22%	8%	0.8%	no record
AA 5549 American flown by PSA Flight history →	CLT 20:31	IAD 22:05	24%	8%	0.7%	55%
AA 1242 American Flight history →	CLT 22:45	IAD 00:10	27%	8%	1.2%	41%
AA 1450 American Flight history →	CLT 18:10	IAD 19:40	30%	10%	0.9%	53%
AA 3238 American	CLT 19:48	IAD 21:14	31%	9%	1.2%	no record
UA 6279 United flown by Mesa no forecast: 12-month record	CLT 06:00	IAD 07:29	8%	5%	2.6%	92%
UA 4012 United flown by Mesa no forecast: 12-month record	CLT 10:27	IAD 11:55	15%	5%	0.0%	85%
UA 3998 United flown by Mesa no forecast: 12-month record	CLT 19:44	IAD 21:20	18%	8%	5.5%	82%
UA 6203 United flown by Mesa no forecast: 12-month record	CLT 14:53	IAD 16:30	23%	10%	1.4%	77%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON