Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 9:00 PM ET · 10 nonstops

Tomorrow: AA 2445 at 07:14 is the safest bet, 20% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 33–38%.

Safest bet that day AA 2445 CLT 07:14 → IAH 09:09 · 20% chance 15+ min late · usually 91% on time Riskiest AA 1840 CLT 20:45 → IAH 22:27 · 38% chance 15+ min late · usually 71% on time

Against a calm day 30% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 26% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


AA 2445 American Flight history →	CLT 07:14	IAH 09:09	20%	4%	0.6%	91%worse than usual
UA 575 United Flight history →	CLT 07:09	IAH 08:50	23%	4%	0.4%	90%worse than usual
AA 2088 American	CLT 12:22	IAH 14:06	28%	6%	1.3%	no record
AA 1919 American Flight history →	CLT 12:30	IAH 14:12	30%	8%	1.2%	65%
AA 2364 American	CLT 15:19	IAH 17:12	30%	6%	1.3%	no record
AA 2935 American Flight history →	CLT 18:41	IAH 20:33	33%	10%	1.2%	62%
F9 2395 Frontier Flight history →	CLT 12:15	IAH 14:02	37%	14%	0.9%	62%
AA 1840 American Flight history →	CLT 20:45	IAH 22:27	38%	11%	1.2%	71%
UA 6236 United flown by Mesa no forecast: 12-month record	CLT 11:48	IAH 13:34	10%	4%	0.9%	90%
UA 4020 United flown by Mesa no forecast: 12-month record	CLT 17:00	IAH 18:58	20%	13%	0.0%	80%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON