Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 7:00 PM ET · 8 nonstops

Tomorrow: AA 821 at 08:22 is the safest bet, 11% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 26–31%.

Safest bet that day AA 821 CLT 08:22 → IND 10:01 · 11% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 1536 CLT 17:25 → IND 19:04 · 31% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 22% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 23% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 821 American	CLT 08:22	IND 10:01	11%	4%	0.3%	no record
AA 3044 American Flight history →	CLT 11:39	IND 13:21	16%	6%	0.9%	93%
AA 1944 American Flight history →	CLT 08:56	IND 10:35	16%	5%	1.0%	89%
AA 1589 American Flight history →	CLT 13:29	IND 15:08	19%	6%	0.9%	83%
AA 1033 American Flight history →	CLT 22:28	IND 00:09	26%	6%	1.0%	75%
AA 1939 American Flight history →	CLT 17:08	IND 18:52	30%	8%	0.9%	64%
AA 3087 American Flight history →	CLT 21:07	IND 22:47	30%	9%	0.9%	61%
AA 1536 American	CLT 17:25	IND 19:04	31%	8%	0.9%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON