tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 6:00 PM ET · 9 nonstops

Tomorrow: AA 1554 at 07:39 is the safest bet, 16% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 35–41%.

Safest bet that day AA 1554 CLT 07:39 → JAX 09:03 · 16% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 1991 CLT 18:00 → JAX 19:32 · 41% chance 15+ min late · usually 52% on time
Against a calm day 30% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 27% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.
AA 1554 American CLT 07:39 JAX 09:03 16% 5% 1.3% no record
AA 1989 American Flight history → CLT 07:05 JAX 08:29 16% 4% 0.6% 90%
AA 1462 American CLT 11:32 JAX 13:19 20% 6% 1.3% no record
AA 2001 American Flight history → CLT 11:26 JAX 12:51 27% 6% 1.3% 76%
AA 2713 American Flight history → CLT 22:33 JAX 23:59 35% 10% 1.9% 70%
AA 2298 American CLT 16:07 JAX 17:35 37% 10% 1.3% no record
AA 1999 American Flight history → CLT 15:49 JAX 17:14 37% 10% 1.3% 56%
AA 1464 American CLT 18:14 JAX 19:38 39% 12% 1.9% no record
AA 1991 American Flight history → CLT 18:00 JAX 19:32 41% 12% 1.9% 52%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON