Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 5:00 PM ET · 9 nonstops

Tomorrow: AA 1213 at 11:56 is the safest bet, 20% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 30–37%.

Safest bet that day AA 1213 CLT 11:56 → LAX 13:55 · 20% chance 15+ min late · usually 89% on time Riskiest AA 2055 CLT 19:14 → LAX 21:20 · 37% chance 15+ min late · usually 67% on time

Against a calm day 25% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 26% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 1213 American Flight history →	CLT 11:56	LAX 13:55	20%	5%	0.8%	89%
AA 1995 American Flight history →	CLT 08:57	LAX 10:56	20%	4%	0.8%	90%worse than usual
AA 1988 American Flight history →	CLT 12:05	LAX 14:19	21%	5%	0.8%	89%
AA 543 American	CLT 07:15	LAX 09:33	22%	3%	0.8%	no record
AA 2070 American Flight history →	CLT 07:05	LAX 09:09	23%	4%	0.8%	85%
AA 352 American Flight history →	CLT 13:21	LAX 15:18	23%	6%	0.8%	81%
AA 1502 American Flight history →	CLT 14:33	LAX 16:30	28%	5%	0.8%	72%
AA 1499 American Flight history →	CLT 16:50	LAX 18:55	30%	7%	0.8%	63%
AA 2055 American Flight history →	CLT 19:14	LAX 21:20	37%	9%	0.8%	67%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Delta Details →	CLT 05:30 → ATL 06:41DL 3186	1h 34m Atlanta	ATL 08:15 → LAX 09:48DL 898	7h 18m	98%	83%
Delta Details →	CLT 06:00 → DTW 07:42DL 1405	53m Detroit	DTW 08:35 → LAX 10:20DL 523	7h 20m	93%	82%
Southwest Details →	CLT 06:35 → BNA 07:00WN 1167	1h 05m Nashville	BNA 08:05 → LAX 10:32WN 400	6h 57m	94%	81%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON