Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 18 nonstops

Tomorrow: YX 5766 at 07:00 is the safest bet, 13% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 25–41%.

Safest bet that day YX 5766 CLT 07:00 → LGA 08:55 · 13% chance 15+ min late Riskiest F9 3134 CLT 15:54 → LGA 17:47 · 58% chance 15+ min late · usually 56% on time

Against a calm day 30% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 22% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


YX 5766 Republic	CLT 07:00	LGA 08:55	13%	4%	0.7%	no record
DL 5599 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	CLT 07:00	LGA 08:57	14%	4%	0.7%	89%
AA 2036 American Flight history →	CLT 06:54	LGA 08:41	18%	4%	1.8%	82%
AA 2043 American Flight history →	CLT 07:05	LGA 09:01	19%	4%	2.1%	88%
YX 5719 Republic	CLT 12:26	LGA 14:20	22%	6%	0.6%	no record
DL 5828 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	CLT 17:05	LGA 19:12	25%	6%	0.7%	60%
AA 2796 American	CLT 11:42	LGA 13:43	28%	6%	1.6%	no record
AA 1150 American Flight history →	CLT 09:20	LGA 11:15	28%	5%	1.6%	77%
AA 2033 American Flight history →	CLT 11:39	LGA 13:35	33%	6%	1.6%	65%
AA 2068 American Flight history →	CLT 13:22	LGA 15:25	35%	8%	1.2%	66%
AA 1060 American Flight history →	CLT 17:38	LGA 19:41	40%	9%	1.8%	62%
AA 1722 American Flight history →	CLT 16:26	LGA 18:29	41%	9%	1.8%	54%
AA 1942 American Flight history →	CLT 15:17	LGA 17:15	42%	9%	1.3%	65%
F9 3134 Frontier Flight history →	CLT 15:54	LGA 17:47	58%	19%	1.2%	56%worse than usual
DL 5068 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	CLT 09:36	LGA 11:32	17%	9%	6.5%	83%
DL 5051 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	CLT 11:50	LGA 13:50	23%	7%	6.7%	77%
DL 5046 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	CLT 14:37	LGA 16:40	31%	17%	13.6%	69%
DL 5047 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	CLT 20:12	LGA 22:21	33%	18%	10.7%	67%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON