Today looks like a normal day here: all 3 nonstops are 26–35% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet today AA 2046 CLT 14:45 → MCI 16:12 · 26% chance 15+ min late · usually 72% on time Riskiest AA 1732 CLT 21:34 → MCI 22:58 · 35% chance 15+ min late · usually 68% on time

Against a calm day 31% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 27% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 3 flights that already left today are not shown.


AA 2046 American Flight history →	CLT 14:45	MCI 16:12	26%	10%	0.3%	72%
AA 1629 American	CLT 16:07	MCI 17:41	31%	10%	0.3%	no record
AA 1732 American Flight history →	CLT 21:34	MCI 22:58	35%	10%	0.4%	68%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON