Today: PT 6120 at 16:45 is the safest bet, 21% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 26–40%.

Safest bet today PT 6120 CLT 16:45 → MDT 18:24 · 21% chance 15+ min late Riskiest OH 5091 CLT 16:05 → MDT 17:13 · 40% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 30% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 22% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 5 flights that already left today are not shown.


PT 6120 Piedmont	CLT 16:45	MDT 18:24	21%	4%	0.6%	no record
AA 6073 American flown by Piedmont Flight history →	CLT 18:50	MDT 20:29	26%	5%	0.6%	85%worse than usual
OH 5462 PSA	CLT 22:44	MDT 00:26	31%	6%	1.0%	no record
OH 5091 PSA	CLT 16:05	MDT 17:13	40%	9%	0.8%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON