Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 6:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Tomorrow: WN 3048 at 07:35 is the safest bet, 11% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 13–23%.

Safest bet that day WN 3048 CLT 07:35 → MDW 08:40 · 11% chance 15+ min late · usually 90% on time Riskiest WN 1513 CLT 19:05 → MDW 20:10 · 23% chance 15+ min late · usually 35% on time

Against a calm day 16% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 14% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 3048 Southwest Flight history →	CLT 07:35	MDW 08:40	11%	2%	0.7%	90%
WN 1226 Southwest	CLT 07:40	MDW 08:42	13%	3%	0.7%	no record
WN 4529 Southwest Flight history →	CLT 11:35	MDW 12:35	18%	4%	0.6%	96%worse than usual
WN 1513 Southwest Flight history →	CLT 19:05	MDW 20:10	23%	6%	0.6%	35%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON