Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 6:07 pm at Charlotte); 5 already left

Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Today: one nonstop, AA 5033 at 20:33, with a 33% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops today


AA 5033 American flown by PSA Flight history →	CLT 20:33	MHT 22:51	33%	7%	0.4%	68%

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Manchester on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


American Details →	CLT 18:23 → DCA 19:49AA 527	2h 22m Washington	DCA 22:11 → MHT 23:48AA 5283 · flown by PSA	5h 25m	83%	40%
Tight connection: often missed
Southwest Details →	CLT 19:50 → BWI 21:25WN 478	1h 04m Baltimore	BWI 22:29 → MHT 00:03 +1WN 1081	4h 13m	60%	32%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON