Today looks like a normal day here: all 4 nonstops are 33–36% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet today AA 1072 CLT 22:47 → MKE 23:54 · 33% chance 15+ min late · usually 66% on time Riskiest AA 2134 CLT 11:38 → MKE 12:44 · 36% chance 15+ min late · usually 73% on time

Against a calm day 34% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 29% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 1 flight that already left today is not shown.


AA 1072 American Flight history →	CLT 22:47	MKE 23:54	33%	8%	0.3%	66%
AA 2846 American Flight history →	CLT 16:26	MKE 17:37	33%	8%	0.2%	64%
AA 3193 American	CLT 16:46	MKE 17:59	35%	9%	0.2%	no record
AA 2134 American Flight history →	CLT 11:38	MKE 12:44	36%	7%	0.2%	73%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON