Today looks like a normal day here: all 3 nonstops are 25–33% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet today AA 5307 CLT 14:20 → MSN 15:39 · 25% chance 15+ min late · usually 62% on time Riskiest AA 1426 CLT 22:28 → MSN 23:42 · 33% chance 15+ min late · usually 70% on time

Against a calm day 29% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 26% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 2 flights that already left today are not shown.


AA 5307 American flown by PSA Flight history →	CLT 14:20	MSN 15:39	25%	9%	0.3%	62%
AA 3125 American	CLT 14:37	MSN 15:54	31%	9%	0.2%	no record
AA 1426 American Flight history →	CLT 22:28	MSN 23:42	33%	9%	0.2%	70%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON