Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 9:00 PM ET · 12 nonstops

Tomorrow: DL 2491 at 06:20 is the safest bet, 7% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 18–28%.

Safest bet that day DL 2491 CLT 06:20 → MSP 07:59 · 7% chance 15+ min late · usually 93% on time Riskiest AA 2176 CLT 21:43 → MSP 23:22 · 28% chance 15+ min late · usually 75% on time

Against a calm day 18% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 19% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 2491 Delta Flight history →	CLT 06:20	MSP 07:59	7%	3%	0.3%	93%
DL 1827 Delta Flight history →	CLT 11:14	MSP 13:00	12%	4%	0.7%	81%
DL 1912 Delta	CLT 11:31	MSP 13:14	13%	5%	0.7%	no record
DL 2819 Delta Flight history →	CLT 14:57	MSP 16:44	13%	4%	0.7%	75%
AA 1737 American	CLT 07:23	MSP 09:04	17%	4%	0.3%	no record
AA 2154 American Flight history →	CLT 08:25	MSP 10:04	17%	4%	0.3%	83%
DL 2820 Delta Flight history →	CLT 19:14	MSP 21:00	18%	5%	0.7%	79%
AA 2153 American Flight history →	CLT 11:15	MSP 12:54	19%	4%	0.9%	85%
AA 1671 American	CLT 11:31	MSP 13:23	20%	5%	0.8%	no record
AA 2140 American Flight history →	CLT 15:41	MSP 17:33	27%	5%	0.9%	73%
AA 2151 American Flight history →	CLT 15:26	MSP 17:07	28%	6%	0.9%	57%
AA 2176 American Flight history →	CLT 21:43	MSP 23:22	28%	6%	0.9%	75%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON