Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 3:29 pm at Charlotte); 3 already left

Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 2:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Today looks rough: weather pushes the average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 52%, against 39% on a calm day. Safest: AA 768 at 20:12, 51%.

Nonstops today


AA 768 American Flight history →	CLT 20:12	OKC 21:54	51%	12%	0.4%	69%worse than usual
AA 2611 American	CLT 16:36	OKC 17:55	52%	11%	0.3%	no record

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Oklahoma City on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Oklahoma City is 1 h behind Charlotte). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


American Details →	CLT 16:37 → MIA 18:35AA 400	2h 37m Miami	MIA 21:12 → OKC 23:34AA 3680 · flown by Envoy	7h 57m	95%	77%
Southwest Details →	CLT 19:05 → MDW 20:10WN 1513	2h 15m Chicago	MDW 22:25 → OKC 00:35 +1WN 3554	6h 30m	93%	71%
Delta Details →	CLT 19:50 → ATL 21:13DL 2132	1h 31m Atlanta	ATL 22:44 → OKC 23:52DL 2423	5h 02m	81%	57%
United Details →	CLT 16:08 → DEN 17:55UA 2609	2h 47m Denver	DEN 20:42 → OKC 23:29UA 4727 · flown by SkyWest	8h 21m	95%	56%
Tight connection: often missed
American Details →	CLT 18:00 → MIA 20:21AA 488	51m Miami	MIA 21:12 → OKC 23:34AA 3680 · flown by Envoy	6h 34m	51%	41%
American Details →	CLT 16:16 → ORD 17:39AA 536	50m Chicago	ORD 18:29 → OKC 20:49AA 6487 · flown by SkyWest	5h 33m	54%	36%
Southwest Details →	CLT 21:15 → BNA 21:45WN 1168	50m Nashville	BNA 22:35 → OKC 00:30 +1WN 608	4h 15m	62%	31%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON