Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 9:24 am at Charlotte)

Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 7:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Today: American via Phoenix, leaving 14:31, is the safest bet: 51% chance of reaching Ontario on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 62% of the time.

Nonstops today


AA 2340 American	CLT 20:55	ONT 23:12	36%	9%	0.8%	no record
AA 3036 American Flight history →	CLT 20:43	ONT 22:34	37%	10%	0.8%	62%

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Ontario on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Ontario is 3 h behind Charlotte). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	CLT 18:10 → SLC 20:29DL 2070	2h 30m Salt Lake City	SLC 22:59 → ONT 23:48DL 1614	8h 38m	99%	82%
United Details →	CLT 15:01 → ORD 16:19UA 3491 · flown by Republic	3h 59m Chicago	ORD 20:18 → ONT 22:51UA 658	10h 50m	100%	77%
American Details →	CLT 09:41 → PHX 11:04AA 1986	2h 59m Phoenix	PHX 14:03 → ONT 15:29AA 2859	8h 48m	98%	64%
United Details →	CLT 16:08 → DEN 17:55UA 2609	1h 25m Denver	DEN 19:20 → ONT 20:42UA 2028	7h 34m	90%	60%
American Details →	CLT 15:04 → DFW 16:58AA 1709	3h 08m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 20:06 → ONT 21:24AA 2147	9h 20m	98%	60%
United Details →	CLT 17:00 → IAH 18:58UA 4020 · flown by Mesa	1h 33m Houston	IAH 20:31 → ONT 21:55UA 1563	7h 55m	87%	59%
American Details →	CLT 13:13 → PHX 14:32AA 2902	2h 42m Phoenix	PHX 17:14 → ONT 18:38AA 1666	8h 25m	97%	59%
American Details →	CLT 18:00 → DFW 20:00AA 2409	2h 47m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 22:47 → ONT 00:05 +1AA 1695	9h 05m	93%	56%
Tight connection: often missed
Frontier Details →	CLT 19:55 → DEN 21:38F9 2369	51m Denver	DEN 22:29 → ONT 23:50F9 1261	6h 55m	63%	42%
American Details →	CLT 19:52 → DFW 21:44AA 1698	1h 03m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 22:47 → ONT 00:05 +1AA 1695	7h 13m	67%	40%
American Details →	CLT 14:40 → PHX 16:16AA 1711	48m Phoenix	PHX 17:04 → ONT 18:18AA 2639	6h 38m	62%	36%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON