Today: UA 3442 at 13:06 is the safest bet, 15% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 18–40%.

Safest bet today UA 3442 CLT 13:06 → ORD 14:30 · 15% chance 15+ min late · usually 74% on time Riskiest AA 2423 CLT 14:55 → ORD 16:03 · 40% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 29% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 20% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 7 flights that already left today are not shown.


UA 3442 United flown by Republic Flight history →	CLT 13:06	ORD 14:30	15%	4%	0.1%	74%
AA 3014 American Flight history →	CLT 22:39	ORD 00:01	18%	4%	0.8%	65%
AA 2908 American Flight history →	CLT 11:01	ORD 12:19	18%	4%	0.6%	90%
UA 3491 United flown by Republic Flight history →	CLT 15:01	ORD 16:19	20%	4%	0.1%	95%worse than usual
AA 627 American Flight history →	CLT 22:39	ORD 23:48	22%	5%	0.9%	61%
YX 3421 Republic	CLT 17:32	ORD 18:50	24%	4%	0.2%	no record
AA 815 American Flight history →	CLT 21:48	ORD 22:58	28%	6%	0.3%	55%
AA 2080 American Flight history →	CLT 14:35	ORD 15:56	32%	7%	0.3%	74%
AA 536 American Flight history →	CLT 16:16	ORD 17:39	35%	8%	0.3%	68%
UA 5751 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	CLT 18:40	ORD 20:18	35%	7%	0.5%	76%worse than usual
AA 2530 American Flight history →	CLT 13:10	ORD 14:18	36%	6%	0.3%	67%
AA 2907 American Flight history →	CLT 15:25	ORD 16:46	39%	8%	0.3%	51%
AA 2488 American Flight history →	CLT 18:26	ORD 19:51	40%	8%	0.2%	47%
AA 2423 American	CLT 14:55	ORD 16:03	40%	7%	0.3%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON