Today: AA 2674 at 22:29 is the safest bet, 35% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 40–46%.

Safest bet today AA 2674 CLT 22:29 → ORF 23:45 · 35% chance 15+ min late · usually 70% on time Riskiest AA 5622 CLT 20:24 → ORF 21:45 · 46% chance 15+ min late · usually 68% on time

Against a calm day 42% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 33% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 9 flights that already left today are not shown.


AA 2674 American Flight history →	CLT 22:29	ORF 23:45	35%	9%	0.6%	70%
AA 2913 American Flight history →	CLT 18:18	ORF 19:40	40%	11%	0.5%	53%
AA 5625 American flown by PSA Flight history →	CLT 18:37	ORF 19:24	46%	10%	0.5%	70%worse than usual
AA 5622 American flown by PSA Flight history →	CLT 20:24	ORF 21:45	46%	10%	0.6%	68%worse than usual

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON