Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Tomorrow: AA 2279 at 11:04 is the safest bet, 24% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 28–36%.

Safest bet that day AA 2279 CLT 11:04 → PBI 12:58 · 24% chance 15+ min late · usually 83% on time Riskiest AA 1912 CLT 20:50 → PBI 22:44 · 36% chance 15+ min late · usually 59% on time

Against a calm day 29% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 28% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 2279 American Flight history →	CLT 11:04	PBI 12:58	24%	9%	1.3%	83%
AA 2270 American Flight history →	CLT 14:40	PBI 16:37	28%	8%	1.3%	59%
AA 1764 American Flight history →	CLT 22:56	PBI 00:51	28%	9%	1.3%	62%
AA 1912 American Flight history →	CLT 20:50	PBI 22:44	36%	10%	1.3%	59%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON