Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 14 nonstops

Tomorrow: AA 2727 at 05:45 is the safest bet, 11% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 23–35%.

Safest bet that day AA 2727 CLT 05:45 → PHL 07:27 · 11% chance 15+ min late · usually 91% on time Riskiest F9 2388 CLT 20:44 → PHL 22:34 · 35% chance 15+ min late · usually 79% on time

Against a calm day 24% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 23% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 2727 American Flight history →	CLT 05:45	PHL 07:27	11%	4%	0.6%	91%
AA 1838 American Flight history →	CLT 05:51	PHL 07:37	12%	5%	0.7%	70%
AA 3325 American	CLT 07:40	PHL 09:26	17%	4%	0.6%	no record
AA 2565 American	CLT 09:46	PHL 11:32	20%	6%	0.9%	no record
AA 2498 American Flight history →	CLT 11:00	PHL 12:43	22%	6%	0.9%	79%
AA 2291 American Flight history →	CLT 09:29	PHL 11:12	22%	6%	0.9%	72%
AA 2189 American Flight history →	CLT 22:29	PHL 00:22	23%	7%	0.9%	74%
AA 2573 American Flight history →	CLT 13:02	PHL 14:50	24%	6%	0.9%	76%
F9 1384 Frontier Flight history →	CLT 08:46	PHL 10:36	26%	11%	1.5%	70%
AA 864 American Flight history →	CLT 15:03	PHL 16:48	28%	9%	0.9%	70%
AA 2879 American Flight history →	CLT 18:12	PHL 20:12	28%	9%	1.0%	73%
AA 423 American Flight history →	CLT 18:11	PHL 20:02	30%	12%	0.9%	66%
F9 1328 Frontier Flight history →	CLT 13:57	PHL 15:46	34%	17%	1.2%	62%
F9 2388 Frontier Flight history →	CLT 20:44	PHL 22:34	35%	14%	1.2%	79%worse than usual

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON