Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 10 nonstops

Tomorrow: AA 2310 at 08:05 is the safest bet, 12% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 26–35%.

Safest bet that day AA 2310 CLT 08:05 → PIT 09:30 · 12% chance 15+ min late · usually 91% on time Riskiest AA 2930 CLT 18:13 → PIT 19:46 · 35% chance 15+ min late · usually 67% on time

Against a calm day 26% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 24% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 2310 American Flight history →	CLT 08:05	PIT 09:30	12%	3%	0.4%	91%
OH 5645 PSA	CLT 11:34	PIT 13:04	20%	6%	0.8%	no record
AA 2295 American Flight history →	CLT 11:50	PIT 13:18	22%	8%	0.9%	69%
AA 2309 American Flight history →	CLT 13:10	PIT 14:36	23%	7%	0.9%	80%
AA 5602 American flown by PSA Flight history →	CLT 17:50	PIT 19:29	26%	8%	0.8%	55%
AA 1962 American Flight history →	CLT 22:47	PIT 00:16	26%	6%	1.0%	73%
AA 1715 American	CLT 15:44	PIT 17:13	26%	5%	1.2%	no record
AA 1749 American Flight history →	CLT 20:48	PIT 22:15	33%	9%	1.0%	67%
AA 2676 American Flight history →	CLT 20:54	PIT 22:28	35%	9%	1.0%	74%
AA 2930 American Flight history →	CLT 18:13	PIT 19:46	35%	9%	0.9%	67%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON