Today looks like a normal day here: all 10 nonstops are 27–36% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet today OH 5027 CLT 14:12 → RIC 15:33 · 27% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 1909 CLT 18:09 → RIC 19:29 · 36% chance 15+ min late · usually 77% on time

Against a calm day 31% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 26% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 3 flights that already left today are not shown.


OH 5027 PSA	CLT 14:12	RIC 15:33	27%	5%	0.6%	no record
AA 5368 American flown by PSA Flight history →	CLT 11:10	RIC 12:32	28%	4%	0.6%	72%
AA 5370 American flown by PSA Flight history →	CLT 11:39	RIC 13:00	28%	5%	0.6%	62%
AA 836 American	CLT 21:54	RIC 23:14	29%	10%	1.3%	no record
AA 1882 American Flight history →	CLT 22:49	RIC 00:04	30%	9%	1.3%	68%
AA 5478 American flown by PSA Flight history →	CLT 16:15	RIC 17:38	31%	9%	0.6%	50%
AA 993 American Flight history →	CLT 21:36	RIC 22:50	33%	10%	1.3%	74%
AA 1757 American	CLT 16:23	RIC 17:41	35%	9%	0.2%	no record
AA 2412 American Flight history →	CLT 18:00	RIC 19:21	35%	12%	0.2%	55%
AA 1909 American Flight history →	CLT 18:09	RIC 19:29	36%	11%	0.3%	77%worse than usual

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON