Today looks like a normal day here: all 4 nonstops are 47–49% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet today AA 2056 CLT 16:54 → SAN 18:50 · 47% chance 15+ min late · usually 59% on time Riskiest AA 2227 CLT 19:21 → SAN 21:18 · 49% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 48% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 43% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 3 flights that already left today are not shown.


AA 2056 American Flight history →	CLT 16:54	SAN 18:50	47%	12%	0.4%	59%
AA 562 American Flight history →	CLT 16:46	SAN 18:41	48%	10%	0.4%	79%worse than usual
AA 3322 American Flight history →	CLT 19:50	SAN 21:45	49%	14%	0.6%	56%
AA 2227 American	CLT 19:21	SAN 21:18	49%	14%	0.6%	no record

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


United Details →	CLT 11:48 → IAH 13:34UA 6236 · flown by Mesa	51m Houston	IAH 14:25 → SAN 15:55UA 1114	7h 07m	86%	54%
Delta Details →	CLT 09:43 → ATL 11:00DL 3174	50m Atlanta	ATL 11:50 → SAN 13:08DL 540	6h 25m	79%	48%
American Details →	CLT 11:30 → DFW 13:16AA 1285	1h 18m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 14:34 → SAN 15:48AA 2361	7h 18m	92%	46%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON