Today looks like a normal day here: all 6 nonstops are 25–35% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet today AA 2296 CLT 13:33 → SDF 15:03 · 25% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 671 CLT 20:44 → SDF 22:16 · 35% chance 15+ min late · usually 73% on time

Against a calm day 31% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 28% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 2 flights that already left today are not shown.


AA 2296 American	CLT 13:33	SDF 15:03	25%	6%	0.2%	no record
AA 5161 American flown by PSA Flight history →	CLT 21:03	SDF 22:39	26%	10%	0.6%	54%
AA 1919 American	CLT 22:37	SDF 00:02	32%	9%	0.2%	no record
AA 3219 American Flight history →	CLT 16:03	SDF 17:32	33%	7%	0.2%	88%worse than usual
AA 811 American	CLT 18:13	SDF 19:45	33%	8%	0.2%	no record
AA 671 American Flight history →	CLT 20:44	SDF 22:16	35%	9%	0.2%	73%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON