Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 9:00 PM ET · 8 nonstops

Tomorrow: AA 1687 at 12:08 is the safest bet, 16% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 24–28%.

Safest bet that day AA 1687 CLT 12:08 → SFO 14:37 · 16% chance 15+ min late · usually 67% on time Riskiest AA 2069 CLT 20:16 → SFO 22:35 · 28% chance 15+ min late · usually 61% on time

Against a calm day 22% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 22% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 1687 American Flight history →	CLT 12:08	SFO 14:37	16%	6%	0.9%	67%
AA 398 American	CLT 11:54	SFO 14:13	19%	6%	1.0%	no record
AA 2411 American Flight history →	CLT 07:16	SFO 10:02	21%	6%	0.5%	58%
AA 2562 American Flight history →	CLT 09:40	SFO 12:19	22%	7%	0.3%	59%
AA 2105 American	CLT 09:47	SFO 12:38	23%	7%	0.4%	no record
AA 2410 American Flight history →	CLT 17:52	SFO 20:35	24%	9%	1.2%	68%
AA 1580 American Flight history →	CLT 20:18	SFO 22:48	27%	8%	1.2%	51%
AA 2069 American Flight history →	CLT 20:16	SFO 22:35	28%	8%	1.2%	61%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Delta Details →	CLT 06:00 → DTW 07:42DL 1405	48m Detroit	DTW 08:30 → SFO 10:27DL 361	7h 27m	92%	79%
Delta Details →	CLT 13:17 → DTW 15:00DL 2684	1h 17m Detroit	DTW 16:17 → SFO 18:14DL 442	7h 57m	91%	75%
Southwest Details →	CLT 07:35 → MDW 08:40WN 3048	1h 05m Chicago	MDW 09:45 → SFO 12:12WN 4367	7h 37m	90%	74%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON